Forecast calibration board

A public, automatically updated record of what an automated forecasting system predicted and how those predictions scored once the questions resolved. Every score is printed beside the simplest possible baseline - always answering 50% - so a reader can see at once whether the system adds anything. As of 2026-11-04.

Rows scored	67
Brier score (lower is better)	0.2823
Baseline: always 50%	0.2500
Baseline: the market	not available - no signed record of the market's price at the moment each forecast was made exists yet, so the market cannot be scored on these rows.

Rows scored	67
Brier score (lower is better)	0.2823
Baseline: always 50%	0.2500
Baseline: the market	not available - no signed record of the market's price at the moment each forecast was made exists yet, so the market cannot be scored on these rows.

Rows scored	0
Brier score (lower is better)	-
Baseline: always 50%	-
Baseline: the market	not available

Every graded forecast

Forecast date	Market	Forecast	Outcome	Squared error	Record
2026-07-31	manifold:UP5Qtg5QLU	0.30	no	0.092	`010959a3d501`
2026-08-01	manifold:I6sOUp6hUq	0.49	yes	0.262	`66c99848bac2`
2026-08-01	manifold:sd8p6yhA0E	0.50	yes	0.250	`21cc0521a734`
2026-08-01	manifold:sd8p6yhA0E	0.53	yes	0.221	`f4c6345e92cd`
2026-08-01	manifold:sd8p6yhA0E	0.57	yes	0.185	`f3337b55bbc1`
2026-08-02	manifold:Asc5yyQy05	0.03	yes	0.949	`2e3916426254`
2026-08-02	manifold:D622e40be5	0.03	yes	0.941	`c1de8df7f648`
2026-08-02	manifold:qcPC56LOqq	0.21	no	0.046	`5a67f66e609b`
2026-08-03	manifold:Asc5yyQy05	0.03	yes	0.945	`9dc81cfc8f3f`
2026-08-03	manifold:D622e40be5	0.02	yes	0.960	`7ce765ef0fdf`
2026-08-05	manifold:QzzPnpg9PC	0.50	yes	0.250	`225ffea08115`
2026-08-07	manifold:gSZc5tdIp6	0.06	no	0.003	`6ceef9fcfc1c`
2026-08-08	manifold:N5LACuEEnz	0.70	no	0.487	`2423000e12b2`
2026-08-08	manifold:RyChAy5t9q	0.03	yes	0.947	`bcfbdab7e4aa`
2026-08-08	manifold:tghq95A6gl	0.23	yes	0.587	`d483ed57df51`
2026-08-09	manifold:NAyCpRdt8O	0.42	no	0.175	`a48df7d2adb0`
2026-08-09	manifold:RyChAy5t9q	0.07	yes	0.872	`1549d5552b4e`
2026-08-09	manifold:dZttUuEPLU	0.04	no	0.001	`faf6bfd0525e`
2026-08-10	manifold:8IEdIOCgS0	0.04	no	0.001	`23aef3ac1a8f`
2026-08-10	manifold:c9PIQPc0SL	0.00	no	0.000	`5aaa0d066a10`
2026-08-12	manifold:2cAAR8gcRQ	0.02	no	0.000	`91f7944777d0`
2026-08-12	manifold:D31f162425	0.53	no	0.284	`2fffd54774ad`
2026-08-12	manifold:R02htZgC6s	0.17	no	0.029	`5b402c1cc8d1`
2026-08-14	manifold:ERRUPS69LI	0.16	no	0.027	`bb93bed413a3`
2026-08-14	manifold:sRsNCQcRNn	0.05	no	0.003	`6364e885af41`
2026-08-16	manifold:6gIu89LplR	0.06	no	0.004	`3cac8a81b779`
2026-08-16	manifold:A5Slcs6NnC	0.49	no	0.244	`699df68c18bc`
2026-08-17	manifold:6gIu89LplR	0.06	no	0.003	`dd1bc13f7563`
2026-08-18	manifold:g2CstR8guu	0.52	no	0.268	`0d3394bb89c8`
2026-08-19	manifold:2qoAknPE50	0.18	yes	0.679	`293101c2807f`
2026-08-20	manifold:2qoAknPE50	0.21	yes	0.621	`c14c26684469`
2026-08-20	manifold:AlQRAIc59C	0.50	yes	0.250	`892aa245ef02`
2026-10-17	manifold:Othp8gA9Pp	0.53	no	0.278	`efc7cf11d5a9`
2026-10-17	manifold:nnEInyS6lS	0.44	no	0.191	`1ffa46642149`
2026-10-17	manifold:sltO5E5C86	0.54	yes	0.212	`3eb02da13ef3`
2026-10-18	manifold:0zzLN99ONq	0.08	no	0.007	`04891f01a642`
2026-10-18	manifold:tOg96y8LPE	0.36	yes	0.414	`2aebeb6394bd`
2026-10-19	manifold:0zzLN99ONq	0.07	no	0.005	`e4a541fa9a31`
2026-10-19	manifold:QlpgAupQZ5	0.39	yes	0.369	`324ececb830e`
2026-10-19	manifold:pc2AtN2A86	0.04	no	0.001	`98ba427de6af`
2026-10-21	manifold:QP2P0uQyQO	0.71	no	0.499	`9713f450653a`
2026-10-21	manifold:dNyUQPNyLd	0.53	yes	0.224	`abeefd880563`
2026-10-21	manifold:qqh2LLII9n	0.07	no	0.005	`7dab8f3a1b08`
2026-10-22	manifold:yzAERRREyz	0.50	yes	0.250	`b523062d0c44`
2026-10-23	manifold:EPPNNOz0C8	0.58	no	0.336	`9e365e98a887`
2026-10-23	manifold:Z9n5SgcU0y	0.09	no	0.009	`dda0e1081064`
2026-10-24	manifold:AhUhASczuu	0.50	yes	0.250	`7c551cf7a378`
2026-10-24	manifold:Z9n5SgcU0y	0.09	no	0.008	`c292461184ed`
2026-10-24	manifold:ynRLsQZCdy	0.07	yes	0.865	`2947ed67f75f`
2026-10-26	manifold:80nz9lU922	0.55	no	0.303	`af2ed54a00f6`
2026-10-26	manifold:8p0CPyUclS	0.09	no	0.008	`44839a719022`
2026-10-26	manifold:Qy0Lq5QtI9	0.25	yes	0.567	`35f9517b434a`
2026-10-27	manifold:g9gAld5OZL	0.65	yes	0.121	`02855e56c985`
2026-10-28	manifold:g9gAld5OZL	0.61	yes	0.154	`8569022b06b5`
2026-10-29	manifold:PAu99QS2PO	0.02	no	0.001	`77e4e95089ba`
2026-10-29	manifold:RnQ0ROnZgh	0.62	yes	0.143	`53bc9d2e2b12`
2026-10-30	manifold:PAu99QS2PO	0.02	no	0.000	`d40211a254ed`
2026-10-30	manifold:pspEQg0du9	0.50	yes	0.250	`a2e4ce6ab07a`
2026-11-01	manifold:8pp8SPhzPl	0.14	yes	0.744	`2d144de4acd7`
2026-11-01	manifold:EI0SggRnRQ	0.04	no	0.002	`8dcf70c6bcea`
2026-11-01	manifold:Z25gnO96tc	0.10	no	0.011	`e879f028d6d5`
2026-11-02	manifold:8pp8SPhzPl	0.07	yes	0.856	`91a68351377d`
2026-11-02	manifold:EI0SggRnRQ	0.05	no	0.002	`3f9d544d0ade`
2026-11-02	manifold:Z25gnO96tc	0.06	no	0.004	`be495955f3b0`
2026-11-03	manifold:RpPqPyZZZA	0.11	yes	0.786	`c793a6015050`
2026-11-03	manifold:hZEC8RssuA	0.35	yes	0.423	`117e3f0df893`
2026-11-03	manifold:ptugEICOLh	0.83	yes	0.029	`f4b638052c6f`

Forecast calibration board

Graded forecasts on public markets

Graded forecasts, independently graded only

Daily market panel: the market's own price at capture

How to read this

Every graded forecast

Daily market panel