Forecast calibration board

A public, automatically updated record of what an automated forecasting system predicted and how those predictions scored once the questions resolved. Every score is printed beside the simplest possible baseline - always answering 50% - so a reader can see at once whether the system adds anything. As of 2026-11-04.

Scored: one forecast per market, the latest, on 69 distinct markets. 86 forecasts are listed below; the 17 earlier re-forecasts of a market already scored are marked * and not counted, so a repeated miss is not counted twice. Markets with no scored forecast (the latest one was refused, undated or tied): 0.

All 69 scored forecasts were graded by a different seat than the one that made the forecast, so the score for independently graded forecasts only is the same as the one above.

Rows scored	69
Brier score (lower is better)	0.2776
Baseline: always 50%	0.2500
Baseline: the market	not available - no signed record of the market's price at the moment each forecast was made exists yet, so the market cannot be scored on these rows.

Rows scored	0
Brier score (lower is better)	-
Baseline: always 50%	-
Baseline: the market	not available

Every graded forecast

Forecast date	Market	Forecast	Outcome	Squared error	Record
2026-07-31	manifold:UP5Qtg5QLU	0.30	no	0.092	`010959a3d501`
2026-08-01	manifold:I6sOUp6hUq	0.49	yes	0.262	`66c99848bac2`
2026-08-01	manifold:sd8p6yhA0E *	0.50	yes	0.250	`21cc0521a734`
2026-08-01	manifold:sd8p6yhA0E *	0.53	yes	0.221	`f4c6345e92cd`
2026-08-01	manifold:sd8p6yhA0E	0.57	yes	0.185	`f3337b55bbc1`
2026-08-02	manifold:Asc5yyQy05 *	0.03	yes	0.949	`2e3916426254`
2026-08-02	manifold:D622e40be5 *	0.03	yes	0.941	`c1de8df7f648`
2026-08-02	manifold:qcPC56LOqq	0.21	no	0.046	`5a67f66e609b`
2026-08-03	manifold:Asc5yyQy05	0.03	yes	0.945	`9dc81cfc8f3f`
2026-08-03	manifold:D622e40be5	0.02	yes	0.960	`7ce765ef0fdf`
2026-08-03	manifold:U8ZZIEdSn5	0.07	yes	0.856	`f4cb6f1bece7`
2026-08-05	manifold:QzzPnpg9PC	0.50	yes	0.250	`225ffea08115`
2026-08-05	manifold:ZRy5uZt68N	0.16	no	0.026	`09dd112d88f6`
2026-08-07	manifold:P95npPQNPS	0.46	no	0.210	`5c10658f1ed8`
2026-08-07	manifold:cg92PIusZd	0.05	no	0.003	`eaa1bc287a5e`
2026-08-07	manifold:gSZc5tdIp6	0.06	no	0.003	`6ceef9fcfc1c`
2026-08-08	manifold:N5LACuEEnz	0.70	no	0.487	`2423000e12b2`
2026-08-08	manifold:RyChAy5t9q *	0.03	yes	0.947	`bcfbdab7e4aa`
2026-08-08	manifold:tghq95A6gl	0.23	yes	0.587	`d483ed57df51`
2026-08-09	manifold:NAyCpRdt8O	0.42	no	0.175	`a48df7d2adb0`
2026-08-09	manifold:RyChAy5t9q	0.07	yes	0.872	`1549d5552b4e`
2026-08-09	manifold:dZttUuEPLU	0.04	no	0.001	`faf6bfd0525e`
2026-08-10	manifold:8IEdIOCgS0	0.04	no	0.001	`23aef3ac1a8f`
2026-08-10	manifold:IZOyg6p2zP	0.75	no	0.562	`1dda5922bc57`
2026-08-10	manifold:c9PIQPc0SL	0.00	no	0.000	`5aaa0d066a10`
2026-08-11	manifold:QNppPpt22q	0.11	no	0.012	`4607a7b0e8a6`
2026-08-11	manifold:UhCl6Auc6I	0.02	no	0.000	`173cd03b01a6`
2026-08-12	manifold:2cAAR8gcRQ	0.02	no	0.000	`91f7944777d0`
2026-08-12	manifold:D31f162425	0.53	no	0.284	`2fffd54774ad`
2026-08-12	manifold:R02htZgC6s	0.17	no	0.029	`5b402c1cc8d1`
2026-08-14	manifold:ERRUPS69LI	0.16	no	0.027	`bb93bed413a3`
2026-08-14	manifold:rBdBsZHwtZ	0.25	yes	0.560	`daaef0f4ff39`
2026-08-14	manifold:sRsNCQcRNn	0.05	no	0.003	`6364e885af41`
2026-08-16	manifold:6gIu89LplR *	0.06	no	0.004	`3cac8a81b779`
2026-08-16	manifold:A5Slcs6NnC	0.49	no	0.244	`699df68c18bc`
2026-08-16	manifold:cSIClsAgzp	0.06	yes	0.887	`14dc0878bab0`
2026-08-17	manifold:6gIu89LplR	0.06	no	0.003	`dd1bc13f7563`
2026-08-17	manifold:Z99pyn2z0n *	0.71	no	0.507	`5e88d90c5bbd`
2026-08-17	manifold:ldqqR6qggO	0.50	no	0.250	`dc080a760364`
2026-08-18	manifold:Z99pyn2z0n	0.67	no	0.446	`3f2ed2874617`
2026-08-18	manifold:g2CstR8guu	0.52	no	0.268	`0d3394bb89c8`
2026-08-18	manifold:sRhs9ZuUlh	0.52	yes	0.230	`7c62678035de`
2026-08-19	manifold:2qoAknPE50 *	0.18	yes	0.679	`293101c2807f`
2026-08-19	manifold:pEy2RL0gIy	0.53	yes	0.219	`9bd7fb2c5ed1`
2026-08-19	manifold:zRZzP9lccI *	0.39	yes	0.370	`550e0942b4b4`
2026-08-20	manifold:2qoAknPE50	0.21	yes	0.621	`c14c26684469`
2026-08-20	manifold:AlQRAIc59C	0.50	yes	0.250	`892aa245ef02`
2026-08-20	manifold:zRZzP9lccI	0.42	yes	0.332	`8b15dd703951`
2026-10-17	manifold:Othp8gA9Pp	0.53	no	0.278	`efc7cf11d5a9`
2026-10-17	manifold:nnEInyS6lS	0.44	no	0.191	`1ffa46642149`
2026-10-17	manifold:sltO5E5C86	0.54	yes	0.212	`3eb02da13ef3`
2026-10-18	manifold:0zzLN99ONq *	0.08	no	0.007	`04891f01a642`
2026-10-18	manifold:p5Syql8puO	0.50	yes	0.250	`61f70a340d0a`
2026-10-18	manifold:tOg96y8LPE	0.36	yes	0.414	`2aebeb6394bd`
2026-10-19	manifold:0zzLN99ONq	0.07	no	0.005	`e4a541fa9a31`
2026-10-19	manifold:QlpgAupQZ5	0.39	yes	0.369	`324ececb830e`
2026-10-19	manifold:pc2AtN2A86	0.04	no	0.001	`98ba427de6af`
2026-10-21	manifold:QP2P0uQyQO	0.71	no	0.499	`9713f450653a`
2026-10-21	manifold:dNyUQPNyLd	0.53	yes	0.224	`abeefd880563`
2026-10-21	manifold:qqh2LLII9n	0.07	no	0.005	`7dab8f3a1b08`
2026-10-22	manifold:5hUsUIn6pL *	0.47	yes	0.286	`85d264ef6120`
2026-10-22	manifold:yzAERRREyz	0.50	yes	0.250	`b523062d0c44`
2026-10-23	manifold:5hUsUIn6pL	0.47	yes	0.281	`c3b421e6123d`
2026-10-23	manifold:EPPNNOz0C8	0.58	no	0.336	`9e365e98a887`
2026-10-23	manifold:Z9n5SgcU0y *	0.09	no	0.009	`dda0e1081064`
2026-10-24	manifold:AhUhASczuu	0.50	yes	0.250	`7c551cf7a378`
2026-10-24	manifold:Z9n5SgcU0y	0.09	no	0.008	`c292461184ed`
2026-10-24	manifold:ynRLsQZCdy	0.07	yes	0.865	`2947ed67f75f`
2026-10-26	manifold:80nz9lU922	0.55	no	0.303	`af2ed54a00f6`
2026-10-26	manifold:8p0CPyUclS	0.09	no	0.008	`44839a719022`
2026-10-26	manifold:Qy0Lq5QtI9	0.25	yes	0.567	`35f9517b434a`
2026-10-27	manifold:g9gAld5OZL *	0.65	yes	0.121	`02855e56c985`
2026-10-28	manifold:g9gAld5OZL	0.61	yes	0.154	`8569022b06b5`
2026-10-29	manifold:PAu99QS2PO *	0.02	no	0.001	`77e4e95089ba`
2026-10-29	manifold:RnQ0ROnZgh	0.62	yes	0.143	`53bc9d2e2b12`
2026-10-30	manifold:PAu99QS2PO	0.02	no	0.000	`d40211a254ed`
2026-10-30	manifold:pspEQg0du9	0.50	yes	0.250	`a2e4ce6ab07a`
2026-11-01	manifold:8pp8SPhzPl *	0.14	yes	0.744	`2d144de4acd7`
2026-11-01	manifold:EI0SggRnRQ *	0.04	no	0.002	`8dcf70c6bcea`
2026-11-01	manifold:Z25gnO96tc *	0.10	no	0.011	`e879f028d6d5`
2026-11-02	manifold:8pp8SPhzPl	0.07	yes	0.856	`91a68351377d`
2026-11-02	manifold:EI0SggRnRQ	0.05	no	0.002	`3f9d544d0ade`
2026-11-02	manifold:Z25gnO96tc	0.06	no	0.004	`be495955f3b0`
2026-11-03	manifold:RpPqPyZZZA	0.11	yes	0.786	`c793a6015050`
2026-11-03	manifold:hZEC8RssuA	0.35	yes	0.423	`117e3f0df893`
2026-11-03	manifold:ptugEICOLh	0.83	yes	0.029	`f4b638052c6f`

Forecast calibration board

Graded forecasts on public markets

Daily market panel: the market's own price at capture

How to read this

Every graded forecast

Daily market panel